Uncertain times bring shifting alliances
DAVE MCNEELY

While Gov. Rick Perry is off stumping in Iowa on behalf of Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, there are district-bydistrict political skirmishes going on at home in Texas.

The outcomes, in both primary and general elections next year, could determine whether controversial Republican House Speaker Tom Craddick can keep his job.

The most recent was the surprise first-place finish on Nov. 4, of Democrat Dan Garrett, with 31.5 percent, in a special election to fill a vacancy in what has been solidly Republican District 97 in the Texas House of Representatives.

The vacancy came about when 19-year incumbent Anna Mowery, R-Fort Worth, resigned several weeks ago. Seven Republicans ran to replace her, but only one Democrat - plaintiff's attorney Garrett, who said he won't vote to keep Craddick as speaker should he be around for the 2009 legislative session.

He'll be in a runoff in a few weeks - possibly Dec. 11, when Fort Worth City Council runoffs will be held - with Mark Shelton, a doctor active in Tarrant County Republican politics, who got 22.9 percent. Shelton says he'd support Craddick's continuing as speaker.

During an attempt to oust him from the speaker's chair at the close of last session, Craddick claimed he had absolute authority: no motion could be made to remove him without his approval.

If Barrett wins, that could mean a flip of one vote for speaker, since Mowery was a Craddick supporter. However, the district is about 60 percent Republican - in fact 68.5 percent of the special election votes went to Republicans - and Barrett winning the runoff could take lots of grassroots effort and a movement by independents to vote Democratic in usually ill-attended special elections.

And then, even if Barrett should win the special election, next year he'd have to win both the Democratic primary and the general election to ever get to vote on the speaker's race in 2009.

Barrett's lead adds further energy to an effort that was buoyed by the September announcement by Republican Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie that he was switching to the Democrats.

If Barrett wins, the number of Democrats will be up to 71, contrasted to 79 Republicans.

While there were 15 Democrats who sided with Craddick in 2007, some have retired, some have drawn Democratic primary opponents, and four cut their ties with Craddick over his autocratic leadership style.

There were 14 Republicans who opposed Craddick. Craddick will be doing what he can to recruit candidates against them in primaries. He is likely to be a major issue in those races - and in races where Craddick loyalists like Mowery are retiring.

The Democrats hope the changed mood of the country and the state, the demographic changes that helped fuel the Democratic takeover of countywide offices in Dallas County, and the taint that has settled over Republicans in Congress, will extend still further to races down the ballot.

The guarded optimism and new energy among Democrats is partly because in redistricting, Republicans did what the Democrats used to do to maximize their representation: cut down the size of their majority within a particular district to add Republican voters to adjacent Democratic districts, and make them flip.

It worked well for the Republicans in the few years since they gained control of the redistricting levers in Texas. But when the GOP margin in a district is cut to only a few percentage points, it doesn't take much of a shift in sentiment, or demographics, or the popularity of a George Bush, or disgust with scandals, to reverse the trend.

That's a good part of the reason why three districts in Travis County (Austin) designed to elect Republicans are now represented by Democrats.

It's also why Sen. Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte, despite his presumably solid Republican district, has drawn not one but two Democratic opponents.

Joe Jaworski is a nephew of the late Watergate prosecutor Leon Jaworski, co-founder of the Fulbright and Jaworski law firm. The younger Jaworski served three terms on Galveston City Council. He is wellconnected and aims to raise at least $1 million.

Also running is NASA contractor Bryan Hermann, of Nassau Bay, a political novice.

A semi-muted fear of some Texas Democrats is what happens in the presidential race if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. One judicial candidate confided his dream: Out at the forks of the creek, Paw says, "Maw, let's go into town and vote against Hillary."

To which Maw replies, "But that means we'd have to vote for Rudy Giuliani."

"My fantasy," the judicial hopeful said, "is that they'll decide to stay home."

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And So On ... One of those three Travis County Democratic House members who took over a Republican district, Donna Howard, recently got the endorsement of former Republican Sen. Bill Ratliff of Mt. Pleasant.

"Donna understands our public schools and has experience as a former Eanes ISD school board member," said Ratliff, who now chairs pro-education group Raise Your Hand, Texas. "She has seen the challenges facing our schools from the local and state level, and she knows that our schools need more resources from the state if we want to achieve the desired level of success."

- Contact McNeely at dmcneely@austin.rr.com.