Texas just might be player in presidential primaries after all
DAVE MCNEELY

The Texas political lament has been that all presidential candidates come here for is money. That's because the speculation has been that the presidential nominees for both parties will already be locked up before the March 4 Texas primaries.

With polling numbers continually shifting in advance of Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses and New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary, the political deck could be re-shuffled and the races might make it past Feb. 5, the Super Tuesday when 20 states hold their primaries.

Top Republican and Democratic executives in Texas had wanted the Legislature to move the Texas primaries to Super Tuesday. But the move was blocked in the Texas Senate.

The conventional wisdom a few months ago was Hillary Clinton would run away with the Democratic nomination, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani would be the slam-dunk GOP nominee, even if he did pass up Iowa and New Hampshire.

But voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and elsewhere in the country have thrown kinks into those predictions, by inspecting the candidates closely for such intangible qualities as electability.

Some Democrats worry that the polarizing effect Clinton has on many voters - whether it's fairly placed or not - could cast a pall over the Democrats' hopes of recapturing the White House, but also could hurt Democrats further down the ballot.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's surprise popularity, after some stumbles several weeks ago, seems to have surged again as he's regained his footing.

And former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards remains a wild card. He could benefit from being the second choice for backers of candidates who don't achieve the 15 percent threshold in the individual precinct caucuses. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson also may pull some votes.

As for the Republicans, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has enjoyed a surge in Iowa, where former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had hoped to prevail.

Giuliani partly backed off an earlier strategy to pass up Iowa completely, but perhaps to little avail. People are kicking the tires on his campaign bus rather carefully before deciding if they want to board. His hope had been to use his presumed popularity, name identification and campaign money to swamp the other candidates in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.

TV actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson seems to have picked up a bit after his dismal entry into the contest a few months ago, but it may be too little too late.

And, Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumed front-runner a year ago, seems to have regained some of the independent footing he once enjoyed before cozying up to the religious right. He's largely written off Iowa, but may do well particularly in New Hampshire, where independent voters can vote in either major party's primary.

There are a couple wild cards even there: Obama among the Democrats, and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul for the Republicans.

The perception of Obama as something different from the political norm seems to have resonated with voters, and helped him raise money on a par with Clinton.

And Paul's libertarian philosophy - he was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988 - has helped him attract a surprising amount of campaign money from true believers all over the country.

Texans hoping to have a hand in selecting the major-party candidates will be watching the next few weeks to see if they'll get the chance.

Effect on Other Races

If Texas is still in the nominating contest by March, that could have an impact on a handful of primary races for offices like state representative.

For one thing, a hot presidential contest could bring out people who don't normally vote in primary elections.

And in Texas, where voters are free to choose in which party's primary they will vote, a hot presidential race in either or both of the major political parties could affect other political races.

Don't Forget November

Another big question is whether Texas will be in play in the presidential contest in the Nov. 4 general election. During the Bush era, Democratic presidential tickets have largely bypassed Texas in terms of investing campaign money.

Without a Bush on the ballot - or maybe by contrast this year, with a much less popular Bush on people's minds - Texas might actually be a factor in the presidential race, rather than the gimme it's been for Republicans since 1980.

And if Giuliani winds up as the GOP nominee, for which Texas Gov. Rick Perry is pulling, Giuliani's backing for gay unions and of choice for women on abortion may well fuel a third-party effort by religious conservatives, that splinters the Republican vote.

So stay tuned, Texas voters. You may matter after all.

Happy New Year! - Contact McNeely at dmcneely@austin.rr.com.